In 2006 a team of scientists and economists reached three conclusions about the effects of climate change on Washington's economy:

1. Climate change impacts are visible and the economic effects are becoming apparent.
2. The costs of climate change will grow as temperatures and sea levels rise.
3. Climate change will also provide economic opportunities.

Temperatures

Scientists expect the climate in Washington to warm 0.5ºF every ten years. This is three times faster than the average rate from the 1900s to 2000. Compared to the 1970-1999 warming average the temperatures will increase:

* 2° Fahrenheit by the 2020s
* 3° Fahrenheit by the 2040s

Precipitation

Climate models show no consistent change in total annual rainfall through 2040. Because of
rising temperatures, winters will bring more rain and less snow in the mountains.
Visible impacts

* Glaciers: Mountain glaciers in the North Cascades have lost 18 to 32 percent of their total volume since 1983.
* Snow-pack: The average mountain snow-pack in the North Cascades (critical to summer stream-flows) has declined at 73 percent of mountain sites studied. Spring runoff is occurring earlier each year.
* Peak flows: Stream flows are peaking earlier in the year in watersheds throughout the state, including the Columbia Basin.
* Wildfires: The number of large (more than 500 acres) wildfires has increased from an average of 6 per year in the 1970s to 21 per year in the first part of the 21st century.
* Rising sea levels: In Puget Sound, tectonic subsidence will combine with rising sea levels to create a 1 to 5 inch sea level rise each decade. Other areas will have a smaller impact.

Economic Impacts
The economic effects of climate change in Washington will grow as temperatures increase.

* Direct costs of fighting wildfires may exceed $75 million per year by the 2020s. This is a 50 percent increase from current costs and does not take into account the costs of the lost timber value.
* Water conservation costs to offset the decline in guaranteed water of Seattle's water supply due to climate change impacts could exceed $8 million per year by the 2020s and $16 million per year by the 2040s. Eastern Washington communities in Spokane and Yakima will face similar impacts.
* Public health costs will increase due to smoke related health problems like asthma from wildfires.
* Tourism and recreation losses related to forest closures and smoke intrusion from wildfires could increase in some locations. An increase in flooding will also affect this area of the state's economy.
* Hydropower revenues may be affected as water management changes in response to rising temperatures. University of Washington researchers suggest at most a 5% loss or $166 million per year.
* Consumers could face water price increases in some basins. Water conservation costs about $680,000 per million gallons per day.
* Dairy cows are affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures. Dairy revenues in two counties may decline by as much as $6 million per year by the 2040s.
* More frequent droughts in Yakima may cause crop losses. While drought does not occur every year, the averaged losses may increase by $66 million for Yakima. Other agricultural areas statewide are likely to be similarly effected.
* New sea level rise projections could trigger costly re-design of long-term investments in shoreline protection such as Seattle's Alaskan Way seawall increasing its cost by $25 to $50 million. A 2-foot rise in the sea level will flood 35,848 acres and affect 44,429 people in the Puget Sound.
* Flooding due to more intense rainstorms, impacts on public health due to heat and vector-related illness such as West Nile virus, and impacts on snow sports as well as salmon and other fisheries are likely to increase as the climate warms up.
* Cumulative economic effects are usually larger than the sum of obvious individual sector effects, such as those listed above. This is because of interactions between industries and economic sectors which depend on each other. As one industry declines, another may follow.

Climate includes patterns of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and seasons. "Climate change" affects more than just a change in the weather, it refers to seasonal changes over a long period of time. These climate patterns play a fundamental role in shaping natural ecosystems, and the human economies and cultures that depend on them.

Because so many systems are tied to climate, a change in climate can affect many related aspects of where and how people, plants and animals live, such as food production, availability and use of water, and health risks.

For example, a change in the usual timing of rains or temperatures can affect when plants bloom and set fruit, when insects hatch or when streams are their fullest. This can affect historically synchronized pollination of crops, food for migrating birds, spawning of fish, water supplies for drinking and irrigation, forest health, and more.

Some short-term climate variation is normal, but longer-term trends now indicate a changing climate. A year or two of an extreme change in temperature or other condition doesn’t mean a climate change trend has been "erased.”

Worldwide, people are paying serious attention to climate change. In Washington state, climate change is already disrupting our environment, economy and communities. We can help slow it down, but we must take action now.

Are climate change and global warming the same thing?

Not exactly, but they’re closely related, and some people use the terms interchangeably. Global warming causes climates to change. "Global warming" refers to rising global temperatures, while “climate change” includes other more specific kinds of changes, too. Warmer global temperatures in the atmosphere and oceans leads to climate changes affecting rainfall patterns, storms and droughts, growing seasons, humidity, and sea level.

Also, while “global warming” is planet-wide, “climate change” can refer to changes at the global, continental, regional and local levels. Even though a warming trend is global, different areas around the world will experience different specific changes in their climates, which will have unique impacts on their local plants, animals and people. A few areas might even get cooler rather than warmer.
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Why is climate change a concern?

All across the world and in our state, people are taking action because climate change has serious impacts, locally and globally. For example, in 2007, scientists from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that warming oceans and melting glaciers due to global warming and climate change could cause sea levels to rise 7-23 inches by the year 2100. Worldwide, densely populated coastal communities and infrastructure that supports them would be affected (such as city buildings and homes, roads, ports and wastewater treatment plants). Some would be flooded or more vulnerable to storm damage. In flat terrain, the shoreline could move many miles inland.

Other effects are also serious. In some places, floods and/or drought could become more frequent and more severe. Even seemingly less dramatic local changes in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture could severely impact many things important to human life and all life around us, including:

* natural ecosystems
* agriculture and food supplies
* human health
* forestry
* water resources and availability
* energy use
* transportation

Many people are concerned that we are losing time to make a difference. Climate change and its effects may be irreversible. (Link to NOAA study 2009?) Life could become very difficult for some populations—plant, animal and human. Species, cultures, resources and many lives could be lost.

For more about how climate change could affect our state, click these links:

* Climate Change Effects in Washington State
* Issue Up Close: Facing the Challenge of Climate Change

References:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers; 2007
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Is climate change really happening?

Yes. In February 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported to the United Nations that the Earth’s climate system is undoubtedly getting warmer.

According to the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington, the average annual temperature in the Pacific Northwest rose by 1.5° F in the 20th century and is expected to rise 0.5° F per decade in the first half of the 21st century.

The graph below shows the global annual temperature change since 1880. Even with variation over the years, the general trend is clearly upward. Some cooler temperatures in recent years have prompted people to ask if there is now a global cooling trend, but as the graph shows, even several years of cooling doesn’t mean a long-term warming trend is over.